Expert sees Turkish 'micro-state' in Cyprus if peace talks fail

Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and Greek Cypriot leader Dimitris Christofias have been holding reunification talks since last September. Talat hopes the talks will produce a deal to be put to referendum by the end of this year. According to a political expert, the Turkish side, which would support the plan, would not become a victim of the failed peace process once again. "The Greek Cypriots do not want to share the political and economic gains they have achieved over the past decades with the Turkish Cypriots. Thus they are likely to say 'no' to the new plan for reunification," he said. Although the Turkish Cypriots should vote for the plan, he said, they should also have a "Plan B" in case this plan also fails. "It will then become certain that the two sides will not unite. But how much more time and energy will the UN spend to ensure unity in Cyprus, where no clash has occurred since 1974. How much more money will it spend on Cyprus when there are many other conflict-prone regions in different parts of the world? How much longer is it going to stand by and watch the injustice of the world isolating the Turkish side, which says 'yes' to peace and unification," he said.

"In the event that the Turkish side approves and the Greek side rejects the plan, Cyprus will not be the same Cyprus," according to experts, underlining that a settlement plan drawn up by Finland's former President Martti Ahtisaari for Kosovo, which laid the foundations for Kosovo's eventual independence, would then serve as an example for Cyprus as well. "Despite Serbia's refusal, Ahtisaari's plan allowed Kosovo to declare its independence. This plan is going to ensure that the KKTC becomes an independent state; it will allow it to be accepted as a microstate".

Logbook of Turkish foreign policy: the EU and Cyprus

While it is a major obstacle that must be overcome with respect to the Turkey's full membership negotiations with the EU, the Cyprus issue is particularly important for Turkey. It is for this reason that Turkey will not give a green light to any alternative that does not offer a comprehensive, fair and permanent solution in Cyprus. For Turkey, the importance of Cyprus is attributable to the fact that since the establishment of the republic, Turkey has focused on the eastern Mediterranean with respect to all of its economic and strategic initiatives in energy, transportation and tourism. The eastern Mediterranean, where Cyprus holds the key position in terms of a transfer of energy resources, is the terminal point for the Kirkuk-Yumurtal?k oil pipeline as well as for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil pipeline. From the perspective of transportation, the port in Iskenderun represents a major transportation hub between Asia and Europe. Moreover, the tourism sector, a major source of income for the Turkish economy, attracting more than 20 million tourists every year, is concentrated on the Mediterranean shores. Thus, located at a vantage point for all this mobility, Cyprus is more to Turkey than a mere island in the Mediterranean. It is also for this reason that Turkey will not give a green light to any solution other than one that offers a comprehensive, fair and permanent settlement in Cyprus.

Obviously, Cyprus is not the only thorn causing Turkey trouble in its EU membership negotiations.